How we change what others think, feel, believe and do |
Ambiguity Effect
Explanations > Theories > Ambiguity Effect Description | Example | So What? | See also | References
DescriptionWhen people make choices, sometimes they have a good understanding of the probability of something happening whilst other times the situation is ambiguous, whereby the probability of the event is unknown. In such situations, people are more likely to choose the former situation, preferring a known probability over an unknown probability. Taking a decision on something that may not happen is a risk. When the probability is unknown this can increase the sense of discomfort beyond even that of a known low probability. ExampleI know that there is at best a moderate chance of my winning a local singing competition as the local singers are good. There is a competition in the next town but I do not know how good the singers are there. Rather than 'risk it' I just enter for the local competition. So What?Using itTo get people to choose an option, ensure they have a view on how likely it is to succeed for them. To dissuade them from other options, show that little is known about the chances of success there. DefendingTry assessing the probability range for ambiguous choices. See alsoReferencesEllsberg (1961), Frisch and Baron (1988)
|
Site Menu |
| Home | Top | Quick Links | Settings | |
Main sections: | Disciplines | Techniques | Principles | Explanations | Theories | |
Other sections: | Blog! | Quotes | Guest articles | Analysis | Books | Help | |
More pages: | Contact | Caveat | About | Students | Webmasters | Awards | Guestbook | Feedback | Sitemap | Changes | |
Settings: | Computer layout | Mobile layout | Small font | Medium font | Large font | Translate | |
You can buy books here |
And the big |
| Home | Top | Menu | Quick Links | |
|
Site Menu |
| Home | Top | Quick Links | Settings | |
Main sections: | Disciplines | Techniques | Principles | Explanations | Theories | |
Other sections: | Blog! | Quotes | Guest articles | Analysis | Books | Help | |
More pages: | Contact | Caveat | About | Students | Webmasters | Awards | Guestbook | Feedback | Sitemap | Changes | |
Settings: | Computer layout | Mobile layout | Small font | Medium font | Large font | Translate | |
| Home | Top | Menu | Quick Links | |
|