Illusory Correlation

Description

We often mistakenly assume things are correlated when they are not. When we make this mistake, we will find ways to ‘prove’ it or simply believe and assert the correlation.

This is particularly likely when the things we are correlating stand out in a distinctive way.

The opposite is an invisible correlation where an actual correlation is missed, for example the link between smoking and cancer was not realized for a long time.

Example

I meet people from around the world. One of the ways I assess people is how generous they are. I meet a person who is very generous. I like them and ask where they are from, which turns out to be Iceland. I later meet another generous person who also turns out to be from from Iceland.

I assume that most people from Iceland are, by my standards, generous.

In fact, I've spoken to many people from Iceland before who were not that generous, but I did not pay attention to their origins.

So what?

Using it

Assert correlation between the use of your product and the health, wealth and happiness of everyone who uses it.

Defending

When a correlation is asserted, ask for proof. Beware also when you find yourself finding correlation—it may have been caused by subtle manipulation of your expectations.

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Illusory Correlation

Description

Research

Example

So what?

Using it

Defending

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References

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Quick links

Disciplines

Techniques

Principles

Explanations

Theories

And