changingminds.org

How we change what others think, feel, believe and do

 

Disciplines

 

Techniques

 

Principles

 

Explanations

 

Theories

 

 

Home

 

Blog!

 

Quotes

 

Guest articles

 

Analysis

 

Books

 

Help us

 

Links

 

 

Please help
and share:

 

Conjunction Fallacy

 

Explanations > Theories > Conjunction Fallacy

Description | Research | Example | So What? | See also | References 

 

Description

When two events can occur separately or together, the conjunction, where they overlap, cannot be more likely than the likelihood of either of the two individual events. However, people forget this and ascribe a higher likelihood to combination events, erroneously associating quantity of events with quantity of probability.

Research

Kahneman and Tversky offered the following problem to a number of people:

Linda is 31, single, outspoken and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations. 

They then asked whether she was more likely to be (a) a bank teller, or (b) a bank teller and active in the feminist movement. 86% answered (b).

Example

If someone says an out-of-stock product in a shop may be in within the next two weeks and it may be in this week, and it may be in tomorrow, then it seems more likely it will be in sooner rather than later.  

So what?

Using it

When persuading about something that is not guaranteed every time, show how it appears in several different scenarios.  

Defending

Remember your mathematics! Just because something can happen in different circumstances it does not make it more likely. 

See also

Representativeness Heuristic

References

Tversky and Kahneman (1983)

|zk|

More Kindle books:

And the big
paperback book


Add/share/save:


 

 


Save the rain


 

 


SalesProCentral

 

Contact Caveat About Students Webmasters Awards Guestbook Feedback Sitemap Changes

 

 

Quick links

Disciplines

* Argument

Brand management

* Change Management

Coaching
+
Communication

Counseling

Game Design

+ Human Resources

+ Job-finding

* Leadership

Marketing

Politics

+ Propaganda

+ Rhetoric

* Negotiation

* Psychoanalysis

* Sales

Sociology

+ Storytelling

+ Teaching

Warfare

Workplace design

 

Techniques

+ Assertiveness

* Body language

* Change techniques

* Closing techniques

+ Conversation

Confidence tricks

* Conversion

* Creative techniques

* General techniques

+ Happiness

+ Hypnotism

+ Interrogation

* Language

+ Listening

* Negotiation tactics

* Objection handling

+ Propaganda

* Problem-solving

* Public speaking

+ Questioning

Using repetition

* Resisting persuasion

+ Self-development

Sequential requests

Stress Management

* Tipping

Using humor

* Willpower

Principles

+ Principles

Explanations

* Behaviors

+ Beliefs

Brain stuff

Conditioning

+ Coping Mechanisms

+ Critical Theory

+ Culture

Decisions

* Emotions

Evolution

Gender

+ Games

Groups

+ Identity

+ Learning

Meaning

Memory

Motivation

+ Models

* Needs

+ Personality

+ Power

* Preferences

+ Research

Relationships

+ SIFT Model

+ Social Research

Stress

+ Trust

+ Values

Theories

* Alphabetic list

* Theory types

 


  Changing Minds 2002-2013

  Massive Content -- Maximum Speed

TOP